POST ELECTION ANALYSIS

FOUR MORE YEARS

 

The only thing more fun (politically speaking) than making election predictions is analyzing them after they happen.  It also gives those of us who love this kind of stuff the opportunity to explain why we were so wrong.  In fact, the subtitle for this blog could be “WHY I WAS WRONG BUT TRUST ME I KNOW WHAT I’M TALKING ABOUT NOW”.

Let me start by congratulating the President.  Not that he is waiting for my approval or words of affirmation, but I think he would be safe in assuming the election safely gives him ‘legacy’ and puts him in the double dipper category of Bush (43) and Clinton and Nixon.  Bush was bogged down in the Iraq war in his second term and Clinton had the Lewinsky scandal and Nixon, well, we all know about that.  I hope and pray the President avoids scandal and quagmires in his second term.  It would not be good for him or the country.

Now, for some analysis.

1.  Whatya know, the Polls were pretty much right on the money!  I have always viewed polls as primarily skewing Democratic, which is why I thought Romney would win.  But they didn’t.  Instead what we saw was consistent correlation between the actual vote and the polling predictions.

2.  This is still a deeply divided nation.  The electoral map looks more overwhelming than the vote.  Obama only won Ohio and Virginia by the slimmest of margins and as I write Florida is still too close to call.  This divide is  sociological, not political.  The geographic regions of the northeast, the west coast, and the upper midwest are separated by culture and values with the heartland areas and the deep south. 

STUD?

3.  FOXNEWS and MSNBC lost all credibility with me, possibly forever, in their election coverage.  I was flipping between those two and CNN and what I saw was cheerleading at MSNBC and a complete meltdown by some of the personalities at FOXNEWS.  CNN had far better numbers (John King is a demographics stud) and analysis overall of what was taking place.  It was so bad at MSNBC that I thought Rachel Maddow was going to cry for joy as she listed all the wonderful policies that will stay in place because Obama won.

4.  I don’t think the election was about values or policies.  It was about trust.  Mitt Romney was never able to overcome the public image he had of being a mean-spirited evil Wall Street fat cat.  This was coupled with the distrust about his religious leanings and his apparent willingness to say anything, kept him from gaining the trust fact.  People voted for Obama because, in the end, they simply trust him and his ‘gut” more than Romney’s strategic machine. 

Okay that is some baseline analysis.  I still believe that our nation is a “center-right” nation in general so I wouldn’t jump to the grand conclusion that this election spells doom for conservatives and conservative causes.  It does mean, however, that Barack Obama has beaten the Republicans twice, and they will never get the chance to beat him again.  America likes the President.  Sometimes it is that simple.

Okay, so I’ve made my analysis.  Now here is what I want to see.

I want the President and Congress to work together and tackle immigration, the national debt, and tax reform.  Okay–that’s what needs to happen now get to work.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AND MY OWN PERSONAL CRYSTAL BALL

ANOTHER FOUR YEARS? (NICE JACKET)

For starters, my crystal ball is sometimes dim and cloudy, but what does it matter?  This post will have a short shelf life anyway.  By Wednesday morning we will know more than now.  However, for the past 20 years or so I have made election predictions.  I have been right the previous four.  The last time I was wrong was the Bush/Clinton/Perot election.  Who knew a crazy man could get that many votes and swing the election to Clinton?  Not me!

TIME FOR A CHANGE? (I NOTICE SLEEVES ROLLED UP)

Please please please keep in mind that regardless of who wins the presidency I will be disappointed.  I am not in love with either candidate, and generally tend to be non-partisan on these issues.  I enjoy watching and speculating, like a person who doesn’t bet on horses might watch a horse race for the pure enjoyment of it.  That’s me.  But before the rest of the nation votes (here in Washington we vote my mail and my ballot was turned in last week) I want to share some of my analysis.

  • If President Obama is re-elected, it will be by a very, very slim margin.  I am one of those who think that he might lose the popular vote but win the electoral vote.
  • Ohio is not the only key state.  I suspect Pennsylvania and Wisconsin might go Romney, as well as Colorado and maybe even Oregon.  Yes, Oregon.  Call me crazy, but I’ve got a hunch.  Romney could win the Presidency without Ohio, which would be a very big deal.
  • Four years ago I predicted then Senator Obama would win, but I couched it by saying he would be a one term president and I likened him to President Carter.  Weirdly, this election cycle reminds me of 1980 a great deal.  Romney, though, is no Ronald Reagan and President Obama is much stronger than Jimmy Carter was.  However, the Benghazi debacle feels a lot like the Iran hostage situation and gas prices feel something like gas lines.  In 1980 it was pretty close in the polls, but when people went to vote, it broke for Reagan.  I feel like it could happen again tomorrow.  It might break for Romney in a big way.
  • Polling traditionally favors Democratic candidates and under reports Republican strength and turnout.  The polling currently is a statistical dead heat nationwide, which means, to my mind, that Romney may actually have  a 4-5 point lead.

Two months ago I would have said the Romney campaign was dead in the water, but right now, analyzing things the way they stand, I predict that Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States.  Keep in mind, I am not saying that is what I want, but that is my analysis.  If he does win, I think his coattails might be long enough to give the GOP the Senate and the House.  If this is something you are happy about, please accept my congratulations.  If it is not, please don’t blame me.  Besides, there is just as good a chance that I am wrong although I am trying to be objective.

I personally believe that not much will change regardless of who wins.  People will continue to live their lives, go to work, raise their families, and Jesus will still be sovereign.

DEBATE TWITTERS OR TWEETING DEBATES

Last night was the last of three presidential debates, but it was the first one I’ve been able to watch in real time.  All the others, including the VEEP debate I watched after I got home from work.  Please keep in mind, I am completely nonpartisan when it comes to this stuff.  There are things I like about both candidates, and things I don’t like about both candidates.  I believe Jesus is the hope of the earth, not politics or any nation, and I believe that only Jesus and his church are indispensable.

But I do enjoy the political talk, the posturing and the election season.  Now that the debates are over, the only thing left is election day.  I live in Washington so we really don’t have an election day because it is vote by mail (which I hate!)

I had fun last night, though, as I tweeted during the debate my thoughts.  Here are my tweets and retweets, and some of the responses I got.  These do not include private messages, most of which were about Romney’s hair or the President’s pink bracelet.  I kept retweeting Eric Metaxas because his observations were, to me, hilarious.   Also, please note, the tweets are in reverse order, so the beginning is at the bottom, so you might want to start there and read up.  I was too lazy to cut-n-paste them in chronological order.

Thomas McKenzie ‏@thomasmckenzie

I love America, but Jesus is the hope of the earth. #debate

i agree, tie goes to to romney. he went toe to toe.  RT @edstetzer: I am terrible at this, but I call #TheDebate a tie. What do you think?

debates over–wow, 7-0 giants. go west coast!

@Roger_Sharp but his hair looks great. nation building at home starts at the barber.

Romney has a hair out of place.

romney’s tie is giving me vertigo. #debate

pink bracelet. nonverbal communication.

this #debate wound be more fun if #ron Paul were on the platform.

Obama looks angry. paging dr. banner.

every time they say “crippling sanctions” it hurts my knees. #debate

Iran has a choice. the red pill or the blue pill.

fewer horses and bayonets! awesome! nicely played mr president.

yep. RT @MaxLucado: One of these two guys is a week away from the biggest job in the world. Let’s be praying! pic.twitter.com/W339cQSV

4th graders in mass. the key to foreign policy. #debate

did Obama just claim he was a small business?

thanks for sharing Romney. we’ve never heard your plan before. #debate. so rehearsed

danger mr president, danger. mentioning oil and gas not a plus for you. $5 a gallon gas?

“Okay, this is boring. Let’s lose the desk, duct tape your wrists together, & give you each a switchblade.” – Schieffer #debate

governor, America cannot bring peace. that can’t be our purpose!

the president’s hands are huge.

Romney uses the word partners. Obama uses friends. interesting.

Is it me, or is Romney’s tan getting deeper and deeper and deeper! It’s mesmerizing! I think my meds might be playing a role here…

wow-romney’s lapel flag is 3x the size of the president’s. overcompensating for lack of knowledge?

nice! after the election…nice references.

yep RT @Greg_S_Miller: @jamiedgreening I wish Obama would say what he would do, together than just slam Romney

yeah, the president never sends mixed messages.

first point to Obama. #debate. citing un scholars not a good idea.

“we can’t kill our way out if this mess” sounds like a video game slogan.

Romney is tipping his masseuse right about now…

Retweeted by Jamie Greening

THE DEBATE AND OTHER RANDOM THINGS

Let me apologize.  This is not a coherent post with one theme.  Instead, it is three unrelated topics that are on my mind this morning.

BINDERS FULL OF GANGBANGING INTERRUPTIONS

THING ONE:  I had a meeting at church last night and as soon as I got home I popped popcorn and clicked my recording of the debate.  My youngest daughter and I watched it with much enthusiasm.  Her interest comes from her recent decision to join the debate club at school.  People keep reporting this morning that President Obama won the debate but I don’t think so.  To me it looked like a tit-for-tat draw scenario.  Each one had good moments but each one also had bad moments.  I think Obama is more likeable, but Romney still seems more coherent.  I think the reason people are saying Obama won is that he so underperformed last time that it was dramatically different than the first debate.  My feeling though, is that the ship had already left the port and that Romney’s dominant performance in the first debate established that this race is going to be squeaky close right down to the hanging chad finish line.

THING TWO:  We can file this one under the “I’m becoming a grumpy old man” but I’ve got to address a problem.  I don’t care what my iPad or the hours of operation say at the grocery store there is NO SUCH THING AS 12AM or 12PM.  It is either 12 noon or 12 midnight.  Period.  End of discussion.  12 is the meridian, and it can’t be ante or post if it is on it!

COFFEE DRINKER?

THING THREE:  Yesterday I dropped by my local Starbucks to buy a gift card for a friend who did me and my church a favor and I saw a man who brought a bird into the coffee shop.  A bird.  It was not caged and it was on his arm, in his coat pocket, and on his shoulder.  The bird was a green parakeet.  In the Starbucks.  Is it Pirate Week and I missed it?  I just can’t believe it.  Who would take a pet bird to get coffee?  Why?  What sort of thought process did that guy go through?  Unbelievable.