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Greenbean’s 2020 Election Analysis

I’ve got some top-notch analysis for you, but first, I want to brag. I was far closer to being right than I was wrong. If you check the blog I posted (click here) the day before the election, you will note the following:

  1. I said Biden would win the ‘blue wall’ which he did. he carried Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Wisconsin will end up being the closest, although Pennsylvania took more time.
  2. I said one of three states will go blue — Texas, Ohio, or Georgia. In my map I colored in Texas (more on that below) but it didn’t and neither did Ohio. Georgia did. They have not called it yet, but Biden’s lead there seems insurmountable unless a recount finds a trove of Trump votes hidden somewhere, which is very, very unlikely.
  3. I called Arizona for Biden. There seems to be some doubt about it (and I am not 100% certain Biden’s lead will hold) but it is in Biden’s favor and at the writing of this blog if I were a betting person I would say Biden’s lead will hold because most of the vote that is outstanding is in Maricopa and Pima counties — both places Biden is winning.
  4. I said the President would take Florida, and he did. I want to thank my people on the ground in Florida who gave me insight. Florida really wasn’t even close, especially by Florida standards.
  5. I had some wildcards out there — like President Trump taking Oregon and President-Elect Biden taking Alaska, but it seems none of those are going to pan out and that is okay, those were reaches and I knew it.
  6. The one surprise I had where I was really wrong was North Carolina. I thought President-Elect Biden would take the Tar Heel State but President Trump will win it resoundingly.

Now, how about some analysis. Let us begin with polling. Again, we learn, the pollsters are really no practical use. They get the margins in states overwhelming wrong. Part of this reason is Republicans always underperform. This was true of Trump in 2016, Romney in 2012, McCain in 2008, and Bush in 2004. What they got right, though, is the national average. They stink at state polling, but nationally they were correct in 2016 and this year. When all the vote is totaled, Biden will likely win the popular vote in American by 7-10 million, which would be in that 5-6% range.

Let’s talk about Texas for a moment because that is where I live. I can’t underscore enough the. thrashing democrats took in this state. Their hopes were so high, but reality came crashing around them at the ballot box. They not only failed to turn the state blue, they didn’t even achieve a purple hue. Republicans took the state house and did very well. Which leads me to more analysis.

Republicans took a lot of state legislatures in this election. That, combined with the gains the GOP made in the House and how they are still defending their senate majority, tells me the nation repudiated Donald Trump but not conservativism. The United States is still, as it always has been, a center-right nation. Joe Biden was a centrist candidate and the nation rewarded him.

I could never, never, in a million years have predicted the angry breakup between Trump’s supporters and Fox News. Fox called Arizona very early and then the AP followed suit in the wee hours of Wednesday morning. As of this writing (10 November 1:25PM CST), CNN, NBC, The Washington Post, and all other reputable organizations have not called Arizona labeling it “Too Close to Call”. Trump supporters viewed Fox as stabbing them in the back. Time will tell if this is simply a lover’s spat that will mend in time or whether it is a divorce. If it is a divorce, I wonder who gets Tucker Carlson in the custody battle?

It seems to me Florida should no longer be thought of as a swing state. It is decidedly ruby red with a blue dot at the bottom. The with margins of victory for republican candidates are similar to Texas. However, Pennsylvania is the new Florida, and Georgia is the new Colorado.

Let’s talk about coalitions. President Trump did very well in this election and received a lot of votes, and surprisingly a lot of votes from the Cuban-American and Venezuelan-American communities in Florida and the Mexican-American communities in Texas. Donald Trump performed very well in The Valley. I have always affirmed that ethnic communities have a strong conservative traditionalists line in them, and if the GOP can put aside its tendency toward racism, then it could have powerful inroads with people of color. By contrast, Black voters turned out in droves for Joe Biden, and that is probably the difference in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and definitely Georgia. As American turns less and less white, it is these demographics that will determine political fates. Both parties better pay attention, and if the DNC is smart, they will appoint Stacey Abrams as their leader.

I have a question that I do not have the answer to; but the question itself is, in some ways, the answer. Will Republicans turn out in these kinds of numbers when President Trump is not on the ballot? They didn’t in 2018, and that led to the Blue Wave. I am assuming he will not run again in 2024. He could, but I assuming he will not. So much of the republican brand is tied up in the personality of the President that I wonder if there will not be a severe drop in enthusiasm.

Something needs to be said about the situation with the transition. Let me be clear: President Trump has every legal right to challenge and question results in court and through democratic processes. That is how we do things in this country. There is no way any of these challenges will hold up, however, as the situation is insurmountable. In 2000 Bush V. Gore we were talking about 537 votes in one state, Florida. What we have here are several states, all of which will (Arizona is the sticky wicket) go to Biden — Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin all by thousands of votes. Biden will win Georgia by around 12,000, he is ahead now in Pennsylvania by 45,000 and will likely get close to 60 or 70k, Michigan is around 150k and Wisconsin is sitting at 20k. For comparison, President Trump won Wisconsin by 20k in 2016, Pennsylvania by 40k, and Michigan by 10k. And in 2016 President Trump won fair and square. That is what I said then, and that is true now. Recounts only change a handful of votes where bad math was used or a ballot was mislabeled. It does not affect thousands upon thousands and it will never undo Biden’s electoral college total of over 270. If Pennsylvania is miraculous taken, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada more than make it up. If Arizona is lost, that is no big, and the same is true of Georgia. The cake is baked. Biden will likely win with 306 Electoral votes –the same number Trump won in 2016. But all Biden needs is 270, and that is already attained.

I have heard people complain about ‘The media doesn’t get to pick the president’ when they complain about what states have been ‘called’. They are correct, the media doesn’t. The states do with their elections. All the media is doing is applying math to the equations so that we can tell who will win. That is all they ever do. Sometimes they make mistakes (Again, Florida, I’m looking at you) but not often. Nothing is official until the election is certified and the electoral college votes. But that doesn’t mean we don’t know who will be certified and who will be elected based on the beauty of math.

Lots of discussion about the Biden heavy late vote in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia. That is not hard to figure out, and no, it is not fraud. President Trump told his supporters not to use the mail-in ballots. Over and over and over again he said that. Democrat’s told their people to use them because it was safer. The result was predictable; The President won the in-person voting, which is tabulated instantly on machines and The President-Elect won the mail-in voting which takes time because it is a paper ballot in an envelope which must be opened and looked at.

To that end, all calls of fraud, rigged elections, and illegal votes needs to stop. That just didn’t happen. I understand being upset if your team lost, but the system works. There are observers, lawyers, and patriots throughout the electoral process and they are wonderful people. There is just no evidence that fraud occurred. Are there clerical errors? Yes. Are there problems with some votes? Yes. Could there have been shenanigans with some people cheating? Yes. But nothing in wholesale amounts, and nothing that is one side or the other. Just as many cheaters, errors, and problems benefit GOP as it does the dems. A good example is in Arizona. The Trump Administration has sued over disputed ballots, but it is only 180 ballots and nobody really knows how those ballots will turn. Conservative Media and social networks keep throwing out ‘Trumps challenges” as if we’re talking about large numbers of votes that could change the totals. We are not. In fact, Republicans, apart from the President, did very well in this election. So, in summary on this point, President Trump lost, but he is legally entitled to challenge because the states don’t certify the elections until much later, with final results due by December 8. We have plenty of time. His challenge will not change anything, so he would be much wiser, and it would be much better for the nation, if he would concede and let us move on.

The COVID Chronicle in which Janelle Gets The U.S. Government To Pay For Her Vacation At A Wisconsin B & B

You will definitely want to read the conclusion (I think?) to Kathy Kexel’s “Secrets” Storyline. It seems to be a consensus among us writers in this little crazy COVID Chronicle cadre of characters that Kathy needs to develop Janelle and introduce a novel. I have ideas for her to work into the plot, but I don’t know if aliens know where Kronenwetter is. Is that a real place, or did she make that up? You read it and tell me what you think. Sounds like middle-aged incontinence to me. I guess it all Depends.

Click on the thumb drive to read Secrets III. If you haven’t read the first two parts, CLICK HERE for Secrets and then HERE for SECRETS II.

If you click the trackpad the CDC will confiscate all the dairy products in your home.

Some Analysis On What Happened

Warning: What follows is snarky political commentary. Read at your own risk.

Waiver: I am not partisan. I am too concerned about the unborn to be a Democrat. I am too much in favor of immigration and open borders to be a Republican. I am too cynical of the human condition to be a Libertarian. I trust no politician.

Disclosure: I will not, at any point in the future, buy or read Hillary Clinton’s book. Its just not something I’m inclined to do.

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What Happened is the title of her book. It is not lost on me that her book title doesn’t have a question mark. She is not asking, she is telling. And that is perhaps as much insight as anyone needs into why she lost in the first place. Nevertheless, I take it as a question. What follows are my answers to her not-so-rhetorical question.


  1. Hillary lost. That is what happened. She was a bad candidate. I am not a Trumper, and that has been made manifest on the pages of this blog before, but he out campaigned her. It has been said before, and should be said again– There is nothing anyone else did that kept her from going to Wisconsin. It could be argued that Trump didn’t win; Clinton lost.
  2. The emails are a fact of her own making. She tries hard to blame Jim Comey for her defeat as if he invented the problem. The problem was one she made. If one thinks on it from a certain perspective, Comey can become a sympathetic character who was between a rock and a hard place as it concerned the Clinton emails.
  3. Bernie Sanders did her a favor. If Sanders hadn’t been such a magnetic candidate, even fewer people would have cared about the election from the Democratic end. The truth is, the Dems made a terrible mistake in fronting HRC to begin with. Elizabeth Warren would have been the preferred candidate, IMHO to either Bernie or HRC. The only positive thing for the Dems is that the table is set for a strong Warren run in 2020. I, for one, think that Warren V. Trump would be compelling to watch. I’m already making popcorn and Kool-Aid. I mean, can you imagine the fiery Elizabeth Warren’s righteous indignation if Trump would have stalked her in a a debate the way he did HRC? She would have lit him up right then and there.
  4. America is sick of the Clintons. In many ways, she lost for the same reason Jeb Bush could never get traction in the GOP primaries. Most people are ready to move on. I am one of them.
  5. Benghazi mattered. Yeah, that was a big deal to a lot of people. I understand diplomacy means risks, but the way she and President Obama tried to sell that debacle to the American public was a disgrace and many Americans remembered that at the voting booth.
  6. If she couldn’t handle Trump’s tactics in the campaign, how on earth did she expect to handle Russia, China, and North Korea? I think Putin might have overplayed his hands when he worked so hard at undermining the Clinton campaign, because he would have run roughshod over her presidency.
  7. Whining is not pleasant. As a leader, you have to own your problems, and sometimes even own the problems of others. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve taken the blame for something I had nothing to do with, but because I’m the leader it is my responsibility. Blaming others and whining is not productive. Someone should tell her this.
  8. There is a gender problem in our country, and some people didn’t vote for her because she was a woman.  That is true. It is stupid and sad, but true. However, that is not why she lost. There are some people that didn’t vote for Trump just because he was a man, or who voted for Obama because he was black or didn’t vote for him because he was black or didn’t vote for Bush because he was from Texas or because he was from Texas. A strong candidate worthy of being the President of the United States overcomes this. How many people didn’t vote for Kennedy because he was Catholic? or Romney because he was Mormon? I don’t think I ever heard Mitt Romney complain about Mormon bias.

I do not wish HRC any ill will. I wish her the best. I want her to ride off into the sunset with Bill and spend time being a grandmother, doing philanthropy, advocating for women’s issues, and perhaps giving political commentary whenever she wants. But I don’t ever want to see her name on ballot again. Her time is up.

CHRISTIAN ARTS FESTIVAL: THE ATHANATOS EXPERIENCE

Yesterday we wrapped up the first (I hope) annual Athanatos Christian Arts Festival. Or, as I prefer to call it, Dragonfest. Here are some highlights.

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ACM Authors Michael Pape, Joe Courtmanche, Anthony Horvath, and Greenbean holding the Mic

Incredible Content

The strength of the Festival was the high quality content offered. There was far more going on that I could personally attend, but I sat in on writing seminars, music seminars, art seminars, historical analysis, and theology. Needless to say, I had a blast. Joe Courtmanche’s seminar on global threats was sobering and riveting, Rob Cely’s theology of Zombies thrilled, Paul Benett’s first person narrative in costume, no less, of a civil war Johnny Reb was riveting, Hillary Ferrer’s seminar on art not only introduced my daughter to Potato Jesus but also encouraged me in my artistic endeavors, and John Ferrer’s tour de force presentation on the historical paradigms of holocaust lead to a challenging contemporary application. The nerdiest one, which might have been my favorite, was the science fiction seminar lead by Dylan Thompson, which could have been titled Jesus and Philip Dick.

And the music! We heard so much quality live music from Celtic to rock, but what I particularly liked was from classical guitarist Alyssa Caitlin and bass ukulele pop musician Alma, who reminded me a little of Erin Ivey.

This is just the stuff I was able to attend. So much more was going on. I hope some of it was recorded for the interwebs.

My Presentations

I wasn’t only a consumer at the festival, I was also able to share. The opening day I gave a talk on the nature of stories, and then I used the eight 2016 Oscar nominated films as a template to discuss the application of story. Then I pivoted to the Bible, and showed the Bible’s use of these classic story motifs. I finished the with three different takes on the Jesus story in church life today.

In the evening I gave a longer talk, but it was mostly about writers wants and needs–particularly the idea of needing to stretch ourselves in our craft and the importance of taking the reader into consideration. Friday I participated in two panel discussions, as well as a talk on my research about child sex trafficking for The Little Girl Waits.

Finally, I was privileged on Sunday to speak during our worship experience as we walked through the Stations Of The Cross.

Wisconsin

The festival was in a field in Greenwood, Wisconsin. I have never been to Wisconsin before, so this was a genuine treat. We drove in on Wednesday from Eastern Minnesota and took the back roads. What a lovely place! It felt like we were driving through The Shire. This thought was reinforced with every Amish horse drawn buggy we encountered.

I ate cheese curds for the first time. They tasted like soggy mozzarella sticks.

There were lots of Green Bay Packer references.

The people were nice–not gregarious like home–not naturally talkative like back home, but they were polite, respectful, and helpful. They kept saying I sounded funny, but I told them I left my translator back home.

The Biggest Payoff

The biggest blessing, though, was spending time with other Athanatos authors–the other horses in the stable–so to speak. Hanging out with Tony Horvath wonderful. He is the mastermind behind the curtain pulling all the levers, the brains behind Athanatos publishing, and getting to spend quality time with him was worth it all.

Looking forward to next year.