For starters, my crystal ball is sometimes dim and cloudy, but what does it matter?  This post will have a short shelf life anyway.  By Wednesday morning we will know more than now.  However, for the past 20 years or so I have made election predictions.  I have been right the previous four.  The last time I was wrong was the Bush/Clinton/Perot election.  Who knew a crazy man could get that many votes and swing the election to Clinton?  Not me!


Please please please keep in mind that regardless of who wins the presidency I will be disappointed.  I am not in love with either candidate, and generally tend to be non-partisan on these issues.  I enjoy watching and speculating, like a person who doesn’t bet on horses might watch a horse race for the pure enjoyment of it.  That’s me.  But before the rest of the nation votes (here in Washington we vote my mail and my ballot was turned in last week) I want to share some of my analysis.

  • If President Obama is re-elected, it will be by a very, very slim margin.  I am one of those who think that he might lose the popular vote but win the electoral vote.
  • Ohio is not the only key state.  I suspect Pennsylvania and Wisconsin might go Romney, as well as Colorado and maybe even Oregon.  Yes, Oregon.  Call me crazy, but I’ve got a hunch.  Romney could win the Presidency without Ohio, which would be a very big deal.
  • Four years ago I predicted then Senator Obama would win, but I couched it by saying he would be a one term president and I likened him to President Carter.  Weirdly, this election cycle reminds me of 1980 a great deal.  Romney, though, is no Ronald Reagan and President Obama is much stronger than Jimmy Carter was.  However, the Benghazi debacle feels a lot like the Iran hostage situation and gas prices feel something like gas lines.  In 1980 it was pretty close in the polls, but when people went to vote, it broke for Reagan.  I feel like it could happen again tomorrow.  It might break for Romney in a big way.
  • Polling traditionally favors Democratic candidates and under reports Republican strength and turnout.  The polling currently is a statistical dead heat nationwide, which means, to my mind, that Romney may actually have  a 4-5 point lead.

Two months ago I would have said the Romney campaign was dead in the water, but right now, analyzing things the way they stand, I predict that Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States.  Keep in mind, I am not saying that is what I want, but that is my analysis.  If he does win, I think his coattails might be long enough to give the GOP the Senate and the House.  If this is something you are happy about, please accept my congratulations.  If it is not, please don’t blame me.  Besides, there is just as good a chance that I am wrong although I am trying to be objective.

I personally believe that not much will change regardless of who wins.  People will continue to live their lives, go to work, raise their families, and Jesus will still be sovereign.


  1. I’m still crossing my fingers. I know of at least one write-in vote that was cast for me (and it was not by me).

    My reasons are very pragmatic and totally selfish. I’d undoubtedly be a very ineffective president by virtue of not knowing how and then doing nothing, but I love the retirement package.

    So, what do you prognosticate for the state elections?

    • the only real perk to being the POTUS is the airplane. i’d so love to ride on air force one, just once.
      as to the state elections, i’m not as successful picking those. must be because i am not native to these parts. i suspect mckenna will win because of backlash on the negative inslee spots. i also think all the big referendums will pass–pot, same-sex marriage, and charter schools.
      but don’t hold me to it!

  2. Nice crystal ball Greenbean!! We do look through a glass darkly. Wonder what Calvin Miller would have to say ?

  3. There is no way Romney will take Oregon. I will bet you one quarter ounce of pot, to be delivered after January, once its legal for both of us to have it.
    Just kidding. I will be throroughly shocked if Oregon goes to Romney, but one never knows.
    Mostly I agree with your last paragraph, most importantly, Jesus will still be ultimately in charge. Believing that sure makes everything just better.

  4. This is a melancholic day for me as I dropped off my ballot. I put it off as long as possible. My first vote in the general election was for Ford against Carter. This election as about that same level of scintillating thrill. Not. Tonight I will be either disappointed or slightly less disappointed.

    The king’s heart is in the hand of the LORD; he directs it like a watercourse wherever he pleases. Prov.21:1

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