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Greenbean’s 2020 Election Analysis

I’ve got some top-notch analysis for you, but first, I want to brag. I was far closer to being right than I was wrong. If you check the blog I posted (click here) the day before the election, you will note the following:

  1. I said Biden would win the ‘blue wall’ which he did. he carried Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Wisconsin will end up being the closest, although Pennsylvania took more time.
  2. I said one of three states will go blue — Texas, Ohio, or Georgia. In my map I colored in Texas (more on that below) but it didn’t and neither did Ohio. Georgia did. They have not called it yet, but Biden’s lead there seems insurmountable unless a recount finds a trove of Trump votes hidden somewhere, which is very, very unlikely.
  3. I called Arizona for Biden. There seems to be some doubt about it (and I am not 100% certain Biden’s lead will hold) but it is in Biden’s favor and at the writing of this blog if I were a betting person I would say Biden’s lead will hold because most of the vote that is outstanding is in Maricopa and Pima counties — both places Biden is winning.
  4. I said the President would take Florida, and he did. I want to thank my people on the ground in Florida who gave me insight. Florida really wasn’t even close, especially by Florida standards.
  5. I had some wildcards out there — like President Trump taking Oregon and President-Elect Biden taking Alaska, but it seems none of those are going to pan out and that is okay, those were reaches and I knew it.
  6. The one surprise I had where I was really wrong was North Carolina. I thought President-Elect Biden would take the Tar Heel State but President Trump will win it resoundingly.

Now, how about some analysis. Let us begin with polling. Again, we learn, the pollsters are really no practical use. They get the margins in states overwhelming wrong. Part of this reason is Republicans always underperform. This was true of Trump in 2016, Romney in 2012, McCain in 2008, and Bush in 2004. What they got right, though, is the national average. They stink at state polling, but nationally they were correct in 2016 and this year. When all the vote is totaled, Biden will likely win the popular vote in American by 7-10 million, which would be in that 5-6% range.

Let’s talk about Texas for a moment because that is where I live. I can’t underscore enough the. thrashing democrats took in this state. Their hopes were so high, but reality came crashing around them at the ballot box. They not only failed to turn the state blue, they didn’t even achieve a purple hue. Republicans took the state house and did very well. Which leads me to more analysis.

Republicans took a lot of state legislatures in this election. That, combined with the gains the GOP made in the House and how they are still defending their senate majority, tells me the nation repudiated Donald Trump but not conservativism. The United States is still, as it always has been, a center-right nation. Joe Biden was a centrist candidate and the nation rewarded him.

I could never, never, in a million years have predicted the angry breakup between Trump’s supporters and Fox News. Fox called Arizona very early and then the AP followed suit in the wee hours of Wednesday morning. As of this writing (10 November 1:25PM CST), CNN, NBC, The Washington Post, and all other reputable organizations have not called Arizona labeling it “Too Close to Call”. Trump supporters viewed Fox as stabbing them in the back. Time will tell if this is simply a lover’s spat that will mend in time or whether it is a divorce. If it is a divorce, I wonder who gets Tucker Carlson in the custody battle?

It seems to me Florida should no longer be thought of as a swing state. It is decidedly ruby red with a blue dot at the bottom. The with margins of victory for republican candidates are similar to Texas. However, Pennsylvania is the new Florida, and Georgia is the new Colorado.

Let’s talk about coalitions. President Trump did very well in this election and received a lot of votes, and surprisingly a lot of votes from the Cuban-American and Venezuelan-American communities in Florida and the Mexican-American communities in Texas. Donald Trump performed very well in The Valley. I have always affirmed that ethnic communities have a strong conservative traditionalists line in them, and if the GOP can put aside its tendency toward racism, then it could have powerful inroads with people of color. By contrast, Black voters turned out in droves for Joe Biden, and that is probably the difference in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and definitely Georgia. As American turns less and less white, it is these demographics that will determine political fates. Both parties better pay attention, and if the DNC is smart, they will appoint Stacey Abrams as their leader.

I have a question that I do not have the answer to; but the question itself is, in some ways, the answer. Will Republicans turn out in these kinds of numbers when President Trump is not on the ballot? They didn’t in 2018, and that led to the Blue Wave. I am assuming he will not run again in 2024. He could, but I assuming he will not. So much of the republican brand is tied up in the personality of the President that I wonder if there will not be a severe drop in enthusiasm.

Something needs to be said about the situation with the transition. Let me be clear: President Trump has every legal right to challenge and question results in court and through democratic processes. That is how we do things in this country. There is no way any of these challenges will hold up, however, as the situation is insurmountable. In 2000 Bush V. Gore we were talking about 537 votes in one state, Florida. What we have here are several states, all of which will (Arizona is the sticky wicket) go to Biden — Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin all by thousands of votes. Biden will win Georgia by around 12,000, he is ahead now in Pennsylvania by 45,000 and will likely get close to 60 or 70k, Michigan is around 150k and Wisconsin is sitting at 20k. For comparison, President Trump won Wisconsin by 20k in 2016, Pennsylvania by 40k, and Michigan by 10k. And in 2016 President Trump won fair and square. That is what I said then, and that is true now. Recounts only change a handful of votes where bad math was used or a ballot was mislabeled. It does not affect thousands upon thousands and it will never undo Biden’s electoral college total of over 270. If Pennsylvania is miraculous taken, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada more than make it up. If Arizona is lost, that is no big, and the same is true of Georgia. The cake is baked. Biden will likely win with 306 Electoral votes –the same number Trump won in 2016. But all Biden needs is 270, and that is already attained.

I have heard people complain about ‘The media doesn’t get to pick the president’ when they complain about what states have been ‘called’. They are correct, the media doesn’t. The states do with their elections. All the media is doing is applying math to the equations so that we can tell who will win. That is all they ever do. Sometimes they make mistakes (Again, Florida, I’m looking at you) but not often. Nothing is official until the election is certified and the electoral college votes. But that doesn’t mean we don’t know who will be certified and who will be elected based on the beauty of math.

Lots of discussion about the Biden heavy late vote in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia. That is not hard to figure out, and no, it is not fraud. President Trump told his supporters not to use the mail-in ballots. Over and over and over again he said that. Democrat’s told their people to use them because it was safer. The result was predictable; The President won the in-person voting, which is tabulated instantly on machines and The President-Elect won the mail-in voting which takes time because it is a paper ballot in an envelope which must be opened and looked at.

To that end, all calls of fraud, rigged elections, and illegal votes needs to stop. That just didn’t happen. I understand being upset if your team lost, but the system works. There are observers, lawyers, and patriots throughout the electoral process and they are wonderful people. There is just no evidence that fraud occurred. Are there clerical errors? Yes. Are there problems with some votes? Yes. Could there have been shenanigans with some people cheating? Yes. But nothing in wholesale amounts, and nothing that is one side or the other. Just as many cheaters, errors, and problems benefit GOP as it does the dems. A good example is in Arizona. The Trump Administration has sued over disputed ballots, but it is only 180 ballots and nobody really knows how those ballots will turn. Conservative Media and social networks keep throwing out ‘Trumps challenges” as if we’re talking about large numbers of votes that could change the totals. We are not. In fact, Republicans, apart from the President, did very well in this election. So, in summary on this point, President Trump lost, but he is legally entitled to challenge because the states don’t certify the elections until much later, with final results due by December 8. We have plenty of time. His challenge will not change anything, so he would be much wiser, and it would be much better for the nation, if he would concede and let us move on.

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The First Biden V. Trump Debate is Tonight , and I Have Questions

Tonight is the first of three debates scheduled between President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden. As is my custom, I like to comment on these issues.

As regular readers of my blog will note I have commented a lot less on politics of late. The reason is not that I don’t have thoughts or opinions, but rather it is about the culture. Our nation is so divided right now that I don’t think adding to the flame any more gasoline is helpful. Therefore, I have refrained.

Yet, we do have an election coming up, and I have questions for both candidates. Chris Wallace of Fox News is moderating tonight, and he did a fantastic job four years ago (read my review of that debate here and please notice how some things never change), nevertheless, I really would like to be the one asking the questions.

Yep — It Comes Down To Which Old White Guy You Want

So here we go — and we’ll start with the challenger.

Questions for Joe Biden

  1. Mr. Vice President, your record through the years on abortion has changed several times, most recently during the 2020 Democratic Primaries. How would you describe your position on abortion right now?
  2. Famously you had to withdraw from your Presidential Race in 1988 because it was discovered you plagiarized your speeches. What have you learned since then?
  3. You’ve made it clear you would raise taxes. Will these taxes be across the board, or will you exploit the current sentiment among Democratic voters of class envy? Will you seek to institute a wealth tax, and if so, for what income level?
  4. Your opponents label you as a socialist. How do you respond to them?
  5. You’ve criticized the President for nominating a conservative justice for the Supreme Court. Would you pledge right now to nominating a moderate rather than a liberal if you are given the opportunity?
  6. As a part of the Obama campaign, you mocked then candidate Mitt Romney for declaring Russia was the greatest threat to America. In the past four years, you along with other Democrats have suggested Russia is again a huge threat. When were you wrong — then against Romney or have you made too much of Russia now?
  7. Sir, it is one thing to appeal for racial reconciliation and pledge a just and fair administration, but what would you do? In other words, are you in favor of reparations for descendants of slavery in America?
  8. You were instrumental in pushing through the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare. Many point out the weakness and deficiencies in the law. What, if anything, would you do to change or alter it? Are you in favor of a single-payer system?
  9. You have criticized some, or really all, of the President’s comments and statements about COVID-19, but what, substantially, would you have done policy wise that would be different from what the federal government has done? Please be specific.
  10. You and other Democratic candidates criticized President Trump for his immigration policies, particularly child-separation, during the primaries. What is your plan for immigration, and do you support amnesty for illegal aliens currently in the country, and if you could, detail how you explain the fairness of this to those who take the time and follow the law?
  11. Taking Barack Obama off the table, because you worked with him, who is your favorite President in American history and why?

Questions for President Donald J. Trump.

  1. Mr. President, everyone knows before you ran for President you were adamantly pro-abortion. What changed you mind to make you so pro-life, and, sir, have you ever paid for someone to have an abortion?
  2. In the late 1980s you were bankrupt and your business empire was collapsing. You recovered, and apparently turned things around. What did you learn about your failure then, and how might that help you in a second term?
  3. The first thing you did as President was push for a large tax cut which has led to large corporate profits but did not help the average American very much. Would you make any changes to your tax policy in a second term? How would you describe your overall tax policy?
  4. Your opponents label you as a fascist. How do you respond to them?
  5. Do you think it is hypocritical of Congressional Republicans to push through your recent Supreme Court nominee in light of what they did to Merrick Garland and then President Barack Obama? If the answer is no, how would you explain the fairness of this to someone?
  6. Why do you placate dictators and authoritarians so much, especially Vladimir Putin. More specifically, do you stand by your Helsinki press conference where you said you believed Putin over your own intelligence agencies?
  7. One of the perceptions of your administration is that you don’t care for “Blue States” and have even tried to punishment them for leaning Democratic. Is this how you really feel? In the same vain, how would you defend your policies toward Portland and Washington, D. C. where you seem to be instigating more violence and unrest than actually helping anything calm down?
  8. Why is your administration in court right now attempting to take away the pre-existing conditions requirement of the Affordable Care Act? Wouldn’t strengthening or tweaking the original bill be a better course of action, especially considering Republicans have yet, in the twelve years since the ACA was passed, put forth any alternative plan?
  9. What would you do differently if you were given a chance to redo the response your administration had to the COVID-19 pandemic? Do you regret any of the wild statements you’ve made?
  10. One of your signature issues in 2016 was immigration. Do you believe illegal immigration is still a problem? If so, what would you do differently with another four years to solve the problem?
  11. Taking yourself off the table, because of obvious reasons, who is your favorite President in American history and why?

6 Things You Might Not Agree With

Lots of stuff going on around here. Tonight is Cajun food night at our church meal, and I got nothing, so I’m just gonna go get tacos from Taco Bell. I know, it is the lowest form of food, but I figure they have Taco Bell in Louisiana, too.

But here are some things that are on my mind, and I need to get them out. I recognize you will probably not agree with some of them, which is fine. Maybe It will stimulate some thinking.


1. President Trump is right to question why good financial news, like more people working and higher wages, causes the stock market to go down. Probably points to the reality that Wall Street and Main Street have two completely different sets of priorities.

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2. As a Seahawks fan, it is extremely rewarding that the man who cost us a Super Bowl victory also cost the Patriots a Super Bowl victory to a team wearing green. Thanks, Malcolm Butler.

sb49-malcolm-butler-int-ji-1
Seeing this picture still stings.

3. Yesterday was Ronald Reagan’s birthday. He would have been 107, if my math is right. It made me a little nostalgic to remember a time when conservative Republican presidents advocated for walls to be torn down, not built.

4. I have an almost uncontrollable desire to buy a red Tesla Roadster. Watching that launch was amazing, and really made me miss when NASA use to do great things.

5. I’m watching a lot of Oscar movies right now, which means I’m eating a lot of popcorn. I will blog about them all when I’ve seen all the best pic nominees, but for now I will tell you that The Shape Of Water was a terrible disappointment. I mean, it was almost unwatchable at times, but it did make me miss The Creature From The Black Lagoon.

6. I’m preaching about the Holy Spirit right now, and finish the series up on Sunday. I think the smartest thing I’ve said in a very long time is something I tried to point out this past Sunday.

The reason we have so many different churches and kinds of churches is a strength, not a weakness. The Holy Spirit takes pleasure in diversity, and this diversity makes it possible for there to be a spiritual home for all different kinds of people.

 

Okay, that’s all I got for now.

Update, while writing this, I decided to go with KFC and a bucket of chicken. Everyone loves chicken, right?

Some Analysis On What Happened

Warning: What follows is snarky political commentary. Read at your own risk.

Waiver: I am not partisan. I am too concerned about the unborn to be a Democrat. I am too much in favor of immigration and open borders to be a Republican. I am too cynical of the human condition to be a Libertarian. I trust no politician.

Disclosure: I will not, at any point in the future, buy or read Hillary Clinton’s book. Its just not something I’m inclined to do.

hillary.jpg

What Happened is the title of her book. It is not lost on me that her book title doesn’t have a question mark. She is not asking, she is telling. And that is perhaps as much insight as anyone needs into why she lost in the first place. Nevertheless, I take it as a question. What follows are my answers to her not-so-rhetorical question.


  1. Hillary lost. That is what happened. She was a bad candidate. I am not a Trumper, and that has been made manifest on the pages of this blog before, but he out campaigned her. It has been said before, and should be said again– There is nothing anyone else did that kept her from going to Wisconsin. It could be argued that Trump didn’t win; Clinton lost.
  2. The emails are a fact of her own making. She tries hard to blame Jim Comey for her defeat as if he invented the problem. The problem was one she made. If one thinks on it from a certain perspective, Comey can become a sympathetic character who was between a rock and a hard place as it concerned the Clinton emails.
  3. Bernie Sanders did her a favor. If Sanders hadn’t been such a magnetic candidate, even fewer people would have cared about the election from the Democratic end. The truth is, the Dems made a terrible mistake in fronting HRC to begin with. Elizabeth Warren would have been the preferred candidate, IMHO to either Bernie or HRC. The only positive thing for the Dems is that the table is set for a strong Warren run in 2020. I, for one, think that Warren V. Trump would be compelling to watch. I’m already making popcorn and Kool-Aid. I mean, can you imagine the fiery Elizabeth Warren’s righteous indignation if Trump would have stalked her in a a debate the way he did HRC? She would have lit him up right then and there.
  4. America is sick of the Clintons. In many ways, she lost for the same reason Jeb Bush could never get traction in the GOP primaries. Most people are ready to move on. I am one of them.
  5. Benghazi mattered. Yeah, that was a big deal to a lot of people. I understand diplomacy means risks, but the way she and President Obama tried to sell that debacle to the American public was a disgrace and many Americans remembered that at the voting booth.
  6. If she couldn’t handle Trump’s tactics in the campaign, how on earth did she expect to handle Russia, China, and North Korea? I think Putin might have overplayed his hands when he worked so hard at undermining the Clinton campaign, because he would have run roughshod over her presidency.
  7. Whining is not pleasant. As a leader, you have to own your problems, and sometimes even own the problems of others. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve taken the blame for something I had nothing to do with, but because I’m the leader it is my responsibility. Blaming others and whining is not productive. Someone should tell her this.
  8. There is a gender problem in our country, and some people didn’t vote for her because she was a woman.  That is true. It is stupid and sad, but true. However, that is not why she lost. There are some people that didn’t vote for Trump just because he was a man, or who voted for Obama because he was black or didn’t vote for him because he was black or didn’t vote for Bush because he was from Texas or because he was from Texas. A strong candidate worthy of being the President of the United States overcomes this. How many people didn’t vote for Kennedy because he was Catholic? or Romney because he was Mormon? I don’t think I ever heard Mitt Romney complain about Mormon bias.

I do not wish HRC any ill will. I wish her the best. I want her to ride off into the sunset with Bill and spend time being a grandmother, doing philanthropy, advocating for women’s issues, and perhaps giving political commentary whenever she wants. But I don’t ever want to see her name on ballot again. Her time is up.