2016 OSCAR PREDICTIONS

Before I get to my predictions, let me complain a bit (I am a Baptist, so complaint is my mother tongue).

First, I am baffled as to how Inside Out was not nominated for best picture. It is better, by far, than half of the films nominated. Second, the theme song for Spectre is awful and I can’t believe it is nominated. Third, like others, it bothers me how “white” these Oscars are. This must change. Fourth, I am still mad that Birdman won last year.

One more thing. I always like to point out themes–to psychoanalyze Oscar a bit–in the nominations. There are two major themes. One is nostalgia. Bridge of Spies and Brooklyn are obviously nostalgic, but The Martian is almost Apollo 13-like in its NASA love and the throwback to when we all were passionate about space exploration. Mad Max, The Big Short, and Spotlight intentionally call our attention to the recent past with a hint of nostalgia.

Another theme here is the individual versus the group. The Martian, Room, and The Revenant are all essentially small cast films that let us see a personal journey or struggle. Spotlight, The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, and Mad Max are about the team, each one doing their job so that they collectively can do something spectacular.

Now, the predictions. Keep in mind I failed last year, but that doesn’t change the fact that I have nailed it three out of the last four years for best picture.

Best Picture

  • No chance–Mad Max, Bridge of Spies, The Martian
  • Punchers chance–The Big Short, Room
  • Favorites–The Revenant, Brooklyn, Spotlight

If I were giving the award, I would give it Inside Out. Since that is not nominated, I think I would give the award to Spotlight.MV5BMjIyOTM5OTIzNV5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTgwMDkzODE2NjE@._V1_SX640_SY720_ It just barely edges out Brooklyn, which I love. The favorite in most people’s mind is The Revenant, but I don’t think it will win, at least, I wouldn’t vote for it. Yet, after Birdman, nothing would surprise me.

Best Director

  • Adam McKay, The Big Short
  • George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
  • Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
  • Lenny Abrahamson, Room
  • Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

I predict Tom McCarthy for Spotlight. Abrahamson has an outsiders chance for Room. The tragedy here is that Spielberg is not on the list at all.

Best Actor

  • Bryan Cranston, TrumboThe-Revenant-Leonardo-DiCaprio-Bear-Rape
  • Matt Damon, The Martian
  • Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
  • Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
  • Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

I’ve not seen Tarticle-2698680-1FD070D600000578-434_306x540he Danish Girl, so I’m limited here, but I’m going with the pack and say this is Leo’s year. Cranston was entertaining in Trumbo, but DiCaprio will win it this year because of his body of work. He should have won it for The Aviator. Of course, there is this picture of DiCaprio that looks very much like Greenbean at the beach.

Best Actress

  • Cate Blanchett, Carol
  • Brie Larson, Room
  • Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
  • Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
  • Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

I’ve not seen 45 Years, Carol, or Joy. However, I’m taking a chance and predicting Saoirse Ronan. She carried the film Brooklyn. Brie Larson was wonderful in Room, but in my opinion she was the second best in that movie because Jacob Tremblay was fantastic.

Best Supporting Actor

  • Christian Bale, The Big Short
  • Tom Hardy, The Revenant
  • Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
  • Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
  • Sylvester Stallone, Creed

I’ve not seen Creed–I will fix that when it is available On Demand. Any of these could win–I loved all of them, but I’m going with Mark Rylance as the only major Oscar love for Bridge of Spies.

Best Support Actress

  • Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
  • Rooney Mara, Carol
  • Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
  • Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
  • Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

I have not seen Carol, The Hateful Eight, or The Danish Girl, so again I am hobbled. I think Winslet wins it for Jobs. The movie Steve Jobs was not very good, but Winslet steals the show from the great Fassbender.

That is as far as I got with predictions, although I’ll predict Inside Out for Original Screenplay, Mad Max for editing, and Bridge of Spies for musical score. I’d love to hear your predictions.

 

images from imbd.com, thewrap.com, and thedailymail.com

AND THE WINNER IS . . . GREENBEAN’S OSCAR PICKS

Before we begin, let me humbly remind you that I picked the winner for the last two years (Argo, The Artist) as well as most of the other categories.  So, having reminded you of that, let’s get straight to the prognostication, shall we?  If you like, you can detour here and read my synopsis of the best picture nominees if you click here or for an analysis of Oscar’s psychological state when choosing these films click here.

Best Picture

Best Picture?  Probably That and More
Best Picture? Probably That and More
  • 12 Years a Slave
  • American Hustle
  • Captain Phillips
  • Dallas Buyers Club
  • Gravity
  • Her
  • Nebraska
  • Philomena
  • The Wolf of Wall Street

The winner will be 12 Years A Slave.  It has to be.  Philomena and Nebraska are tied for runner up and I would not be mad if either of them won or even if Gravity or Captain Phillips won.  However, I think in the end, 12 Years a Slave was the best movie of them all.  Her is creepy and Dallas Buyers has too many problems with the overall production.  If Wolf or Hustle win I will be very, very angry.

Actor

  • Christian Bale (Hustle)
  • Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
  • Leonardo DiCaprio (Wolf)
  • Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years)
  • Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers)

The winner will be Matthew McConaughey.  More than any other actor I’ve seen in years, McConaughey was able to make me forget I was watching a movie and make me think I was watching a documentary of the real person.  Bravo Mr. McConaughey.  Bravo.

As an aside, I wonder if Leo DiCaprio will ever again portray someone who is not rich and powerful.  That seems to be all he plays these days.

Actress

  • Amy Adams (Hustle)
  • Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
  • Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
  • Judi Dench (Philomena)
  • Meryl Streep (August:  Osage County)

The Winner will be Judi Dench.  Her only real competition on this list is Bullock who did a great job in Gravity, but this is Dench’s year.  Streep’s portrayal of the matriarch in August:  Osage County was overplayed and caricatured.  Blanchet was good in Blue Jasmine but not Oscar worthy and Amy Adams was not even the most impressive actresses on her own set.  Dench needs to win to make up for the snub she and Skyfall got at the Oscars last year.

Supporting Actor

  • Barkhad Abdi (Phillips)
  • Bradley Cooper (Hustle)
  • Michael Fassbender (12 years)
  • Jonah Hill (Wolf)
  • Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers)

The winner will be Michael Fassbender.  Fassbender is a superb actor who conjures great intensity with his eyes and posture.  His portrayal of the cruel slave owner was breathtakingly evil.  Leto and Abdi are close seconds.  Hill and Cooper have no shot.  I personally hope that Jonah Hill’s moment of glory is just about up.  I do not like him.  Besides, Fassbender sports an awesome beard and that is worth a lot of votes right there.

Supporting Actress

  • Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
  • Jennifer Lawrence (Hustle)
  • Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years)
  • Julia Roberts (August:  Osage County)
  • June Squibb (Nebraska)

The winner will be Julia Roberts.  It is a tight three-way race between Roberts, Lawrence, and Squibb but I think in the end Roberts will pull it out.  I don’t see how Oscar can give an award to Lawrence, 23 years old, two years in a row.  Squibb was wonderful in Nebraska, but she was overshadowed by Dern.  By contrast, Julia Roberts swiped August out from underneath Meryl Streep and that is not easy to do, so she will win the Oscar.

Director

  • Steve McQueen (12 Years)
  • David O. Russell (Hustle)
  • Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
  • Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
  • Martin Scorsese (Wolf)

The winner will be Alfonso Cuaron.  He will win much for the same reasons that Ang Lee won last year.  His film was eye candy from top to bottom and he made a one woman science fiction movie interesting and profitable.  His only real competition is McQueen.  However, in the end, I think it will be Cuaron.

You can be sure that Sunday night I will be watching the Oscars live, and probably tweeting out live during the show.  I do hope Ellen does a better job than that awful man from last year.

Picture from thewrap.com