Before I get to my predictions, let me complain a bit (I am a Baptist, so complaint is my mother tongue).
First, I am baffled as to how Inside Out was not nominated for best picture. It is better, by far, than half of the films nominated. Second, the theme song for Spectre is awful and I can’t believe it is nominated. Third, like others, it bothers me how “white” these Oscars are. This must change. Fourth, I am still mad that Birdman won last year.
One more thing. I always like to point out themes–to psychoanalyze Oscar a bit–in the nominations. There are two major themes. One is nostalgia. Bridge of Spies and Brooklyn are obviously nostalgic, but The Martian is almost Apollo 13-like in its NASA love and the throwback to when we all were passionate about space exploration. Mad Max, The Big Short, and Spotlight intentionally call our attention to the recent past with a hint of nostalgia.
Another theme here is the individual versus the group. The Martian, Room, and The Revenant are all essentially small cast films that let us see a personal journey or struggle. Spotlight, The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, and Mad Max are about the team, each one doing their job so that they collectively can do something spectacular.
Now, the predictions. Keep in mind I failed last year, but that doesn’t change the fact that I have nailed it three out of the last four years for best picture.
- No chance–Mad Max, Bridge of Spies, The Martian
- Punchers chance–The Big Short, Room
- Favorites–The Revenant, Brooklyn, Spotlight
If I were giving the award, I would give it Inside Out. Since that is not nominated, I think I would give the award to Spotlight. It just barely edges out Brooklyn, which I love. The favorite in most people’s mind is The Revenant, but I don’t think it will win, at least, I wouldn’t vote for it. Yet, after Birdman, nothing would surprise me.
- Adam McKay, The Big Short
- George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
- Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
- Lenny Abrahamson, Room
- Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
I predict Tom McCarthy for Spotlight. Abrahamson has an outsiders chance for Room. The tragedy here is that Spielberg is not on the list at all.
- Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
- Matt Damon, The Martian
- Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
- Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
- Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
I’ve not seen The Danish Girl, so I’m limited here, but I’m going with the pack and say this is Leo’s year. Cranston was entertaining in Trumbo, but DiCaprio will win it this year because of his body of work. He should have won it for The Aviator. Of course, there is this picture of DiCaprio that looks very much like Greenbean at the beach.
- Cate Blanchett, Carol
- Brie Larson, Room
- Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
- Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
- Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
I’ve not seen 45 Years, Carol, or Joy. However, I’m taking a chance and predicting Saoirse Ronan. She carried the film Brooklyn. Brie Larson was wonderful in Room, but in my opinion she was the second best in that movie because Jacob Tremblay was fantastic.
Best Supporting Actor
- Christian Bale, The Big Short
- Tom Hardy, The Revenant
- Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
- Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
- Sylvester Stallone, Creed
I’ve not seen Creed–I will fix that when it is available On Demand. Any of these could win–I loved all of them, but I’m going with Mark Rylance as the only major Oscar love for Bridge of Spies.
Best Support Actress
- Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
- Rooney Mara, Carol
- Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
- Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
- Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
I have not seen Carol, The Hateful Eight, or The Danish Girl, so again I am hobbled. I think Winslet wins it for Jobs. The movie Steve Jobs was not very good, but Winslet steals the show from the great Fassbender.
That is as far as I got with predictions, although I’ll predict Inside Out for Original Screenplay, Mad Max for editing, and Bridge of Spies for musical score. I’d love to hear your predictions.
images from imbd.com, thewrap.com, and thedailymail.com