When I say not very good at it, I mean, I don’t tend to just pick the favorites. I tend to pick the ones I think should win or I try to think about the Oscar voters. The favorites are based on media, and the media have different criteria than actual movie people do. Alright, well, here we go with all the major categories, and we will take these in the order as listed on Oscar’s website. I will try to be brief.
Leading Actor — It is a race between Wright and Giamatti, and I am going with Giamatti.
Supporting Actor — Iron Man — and it is not even close.
Lead Actress — This is the most competitive category of the evening. With the exception of Stone, they all deserve it. I want Mulligan to win but not for this, to make up for the fact she should have won for Promise Young Woman. That movie did not get its due. But, I think Gladstone wins this one and I will not be mad.
Supporting Actress — Emily Blunt would be a worthy winner, but I think it goes to Ferrera. That speech!
Animated Feature Film — We always watch all of these, escape this year. The Boy and the Heron and Robot Dreams are unavailable to us in any format or location. So, given that, I think Spiderman wins, although Elemental was very, very good.
Cinematography — The Holdovers should have had a nomination here. The winner is Oppenheimer.
Costume Design — I fatigue of period pieces dominating this category, so I am going with Barbie.
Directing — Jonathan Glazer. Scorsese might pull it out, but I think Glazer deserves it. Zone of Interest was brilliant.
Documentary Feature Film — This is a two film race between Eternal Memory and 20 Days in Mariupol. You should watch both of them. I think Mariupol wins.
Film Editing — Anatomy of a Fall.
International Feature Film — The rule is, if you’re nominated for Best Picture and are in the International Category, you win the International, so that means the Oscar goes to Zone of Interest. However, Society of the Snow is very good and gut wrenching.
Makeup and Hair — I want Golda to win, because I liked that movie and the way they captured the early 1970s was glorious. The winner, though, will be Oppenheimer.
Original Score — American Fiction. That is such a delightful album you can put it on and listen to it while cooking or cleaning or reading a book. I would not be mad, though, if John Williams won because — go listen to it — that Indy soundtrack is probably the only one of these that actually sounds like it belongs to a movie.
Original Song — What Was I Made For — Billie Eilish gets her second Oscar.
Best Picture — For a more thorough discussion of this one, click here. The winner is Barbie.
Production Design — I’m gonna go with Killers of the Flower Moon. This is where they will be awarded for the care they took with the subject matter and the historicity of the issue.
Sound — The easy pick would be Oppenheimer but the constant gunshots, shouting, and background chaos of Zone of Interest gives it the award.
Visual — Guardians of the Galaxy Party 3. Not only that, this was also a top five Marvel movie. I am sick of Marvel, and I still loved this one.
Adapted Screenplay — Barbie.
Original Screenplay — Anatomy of a Fall.
And there you have it. If I am 50% right, I will consider it to have been a good night. The only ones that are locks, as far as I am concerned, is Robert Downey, Jr., Billie Eilish, Zone for International Film, and Guardians for Visuals.
Possible Surprises — Nyad. I know very few people watched it and it hasn’t had a lot of hype, but the age and performance of Benning and Foster have a ‘Nomad’ feel, and Oscar could upset the applecart a bit by picking the old timers. Another possible surprise motif would be one film running the table on all the categories, which hasn’t really happened in a while. If that happens, look for it to be Zone of Interest.
We will find out Sunday evening.