There are ten films nominated for best picture by the Academy Awards. I can make an argument for seven of them to possibly win.

But before I give you my best guess, let me give a brief review of all ten. I’ll take them in order of their listing (alphabetical) on the Oscar website so you know I’m not playing favorites.

American Fiction
I am dispositioned to love this film from the beginning because the main character is a writer. The set up is that the lead, Monk, is an academic, well-learned man who finds himself prey to the vulgarities of the publishing industry which demands exploitation. I can relate. The turn, though, is that this movie is just as much about family and relationships as anything else. There is a great deal of filthy language in this movie, but Jeffrey Wright is fantastic! If you’re a thoughtful grownup, you’ll like the film even if, I think, they botched the ending.

Anatomy of a Fall
Really, really strong ending, but this movie takes about forty-five minutes before you’re invested. It starts slowly, like a Hyundai on a NASCAR track slow. The strength is the acting and the dynamic screenplay. The way it is filmed seems at time to almost be a documentary.

Barbie
This is the most religious movie I’ve seen in years. Barbie meets her maker, is born again, and discovers her incarnational self. Oh, and there is a lot of social commentary on male/female relationships and gender roles. I enjoyed this movie far more than I dreamed I might. For all the conversation about Margot Robbie snubs, the ones who make the movie for me are America Ferrera and Michael Cera.

The Holdovers
Again, a movie I am predisposition to like from before it ever starts. The triumvirate set up is strong, the growth pattern is also strong, and the performances are superlative. I also love the cinematography here in that the setting is the 1970s and it looks like it was filmed in the 1970s in all the right ways. Does it feel a little cliche at points. Absolutely. Is the ending rather predictable. Yes, of course. Could it be described as a poor man’s Dead Poet’s Society. Most definitely. That doesn’t mean it isn’t a great movie.

Killers of the Flower Moon
The detail and patience in this film is what makes it so great. Time and energy was taken to get the people, the language, the moments, and the narrative right rather than rushing to make it look okay. I appreciate the respect given to the Osage people and their involvement in production. I also love they resisted the urge and ease of making this an FBI movie or law enforcement film. Bravo. And Lily Gladstone! Amazing.

Maestro
To say I was disappointed in this film is an understatement. I had such high expectations for it. It is too long, too melodramatic, and too pretentious. The only bright spot for me is Carey Mulligan, who is truly one of the greats of our time.

Oppenheimer
This movie is beautiful to watch, even with all the destructive powers to behold. The problem is the film loses focus at times and doesn’t know how to portray the central figure – is he a hero or a villain or a tortured soul or all? Emily Blunt carries this movie — and I mean carries this movie particularly the last third. Robert Downey, Jr. was fantastic against type.

Past Lives
The most boring movie I’ve seen in a long time. About half of it is watching people FaceTime each other, like we didn’t get enough of that during the pandemic. Nothing here of note.

Poor Things
I loathe this movie. Hate it. It is grotesque, mean, and just awful. My review is that the movie is really only a mash-up of Frankenstein, The Man with Two Brains, The Grand Budapest Hotel, and what I imagine would have been the fictional movie Rochelle Rochelle from Seinfeld fame. This movie should not be celebrated, it should be shunned not just for lack of real art, but also because of the awful subtext of pedophilia and incest through the entire movie. The gag reflex is real for this butchery. No one should ever watch it. Save yourself. Run. Many have praised Emma Stone, but I’m telling you, her non-sex scenes reminded me of warm up exercises for first year theater students. Seriously. Awful.

Zone of Interest
This movie is so excellently done that no review can really do it justice. It is the opposite end of the string of something like Jojo Rabbit. In Rabbit, the whole bit is a farce, but here we have the farce from history which is the alternate reality that Nazi’s let themselves live in while pretending, in a way, that the holocaust wasn’t happening literally right outside their yard. The juxtaposition of the house and its garden and Auschwitz will stay with me for a long time, as will the infrared of the little girl — almost as much as the girl in red in Schindler’s List, but for different reasons. And then the whiplash ending. Wow. Just wow.

Analysis of Winners and Themes
Let’s do themes first, because that is not long or drawn out this year for it is simple: the theme is the creative and brilliant genius. American Fiction, Anatomy, Holdovers, and Past Lives all feature writers or aspirational writers. Oppenheimer and Barbie are about creators of another sort but none the less brilliant creation is on display. So too, is Maestro and even the abysmal Poor Things. Zone of Interest, in its own focuses on the creative power of destruction. The central figure, Höss, is portrayed as brilliant in the banality of his evil.

Now, for winners. The three that can’t win are Maestro, Poor Things, and Past Lives. Those are out. Most people say Oppenheimer is the favorite, but I don’t think so. I have hard time imagining hippy dippy Hollywood giving the Oscar to a movie about the inventor of the atomic bomb. Something in their gut goes against it, I think. I believe the true front runner is Barbie. I say better than 40% chance on Barbie. I know that Gerwig didn’t get a nomination for director and Robbie got snubbed, but this feels like an Argo kind of year in which the complete movie wins rather than superlative pieces and parts.

Anatomy, American Fiction, and Zone of Interest have a punchers chance. Of those three, I think Zone of Interest is the most likely candidate for an upset. Holder’s only has a Hail Marry kind of chance for winning best picture, yet, if it wins, I will not be anger or upset. However, if Poor Things wins, I will be more angry than I was about the abomination of Birdman.

Be on the look out as I will have a fuller list of predictions and thoughts tomorrow. For now, if you only have time to watch one or two movies before the Oscars and you haven’t seen them all, watch Barbie and Zone of Interest because of their important cultural and historical context. After that, I’d go with American Fiction and The Holdovers, if you have a little more time.