I’ve already given you two blogs worthy of the New York Times Entertainment Section (click here and click here), so let us get down to predictions for the major categories.
Actor –As much as I’d love to see Bill Nighy win, it is a two person race between Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser, and I think the edge goes to Butler.
Actress — I’d give the award to the entire cast of Women Talking, but shamefully none of them were nominated, so the winner is Michelle Yeah. Cate Blanchett could steal it, but I think it is Empress Georgiou’s year.
Supporting Actor — The Banshee boys will split, so neither of them can win. I like Henry from Causeway because that movie was snubbed in so many ways, and Judd Hirsch was amazing in his small but powerful moment, but I think Ke Huy Quan gets it. TBH, I will not be upset if any of them win.
Supporting Actress — Angela Bassett. All. The. Way.
Animated Feature Film — this was the toughest and most competitive category. Only Turning Red was a stinker. Pinocchio is the favorite, but I think Marcel The Shell With Shoes On wins, and should have been nominated for best picture as well.
Cinematography — All Quiet on the Western Front
Costume Design — As much as I love Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, this category is either Black Panther or Elvis, and I think The King of Rock and Roll gets the nod.
Directing — It is not his best film by far, but when you consider he only has ONE OSCAR for directing (Schindler’s List), I think Spielberg wins by acclamation.
Documentary — Navalny, although I enjoyed Fire of Love and A House Made of Splinters very much.
Film Editing — Everything Everywhere All At Once must have been a brutal labor of love to edit, so this is the winner.
International Feature Film — The Greening Rule — any film nominated for best picture and also in the International Feature Film Category must therefore win the sub-category. Therefore, the winner is All Quiet On the Western Front.
Makeup and Hairstyling — The Whale. What they did to poor Brendan. Wow. In the shower. Wow.
Original Score — Another competitive category here. Three strong contenders, The Fabelmans is a delightfully perfect score that lifts up the soul, while All Quiet beats the continual painful drums of stupid war and Everything Everywhere is fun and eclectic. I think John Williams wins, though, because the Fabelmans is a complete composition.
Original Song — Rihanna, Lift Me Up.
Production Design — Avatar — and I think it has a leg up on all the technical categories.
Short Film — I personally preferred The Boy, the Mole, The Fox And The Horse even though they didn’t use the Oxford comma in the title, but I think, knowing Oscar as I do, My Year of Dicks will win.
Sound — Those airplanes. I mean, the airplanes. Top Gun: Maverick.
Visual Effects — Top Gun: Maverick has a claim here because of those airplanes! I mean, those airplanes! But the winner will be Avatar: The Way of Water.
Adapted Screenplay — Another strong category. I like Ishiguro and enjoyed Living, and Women Talking is amazing, but I think All Quiet wins this category, too.
Original Screenplay — Glass Onion was fun, but this is a toss up between Banshees and Everything. I’ll go with Banshees, because Everything has a lot of common tropes in it.
Best Picture — I already told you earlier in a previous blog, but there are four real contenders: Women Talking, The Fabelmans, Everything Everywhere, and All Quiet. I think All Quiet takes home the Oscar on a huge anti-war vote with people thinking about Ukraine and Russia. If the Fabelmans win, it is because that is everyone’s second choice in the ranked voting system.
Thanks for playing along — and yes, I know, I skipped a couple of categories, but none of the major ones.