This is so exciting! I love Election Day. America!

I’ve been playing around and predicting winners and losers for a very long time, probably going all the way back to Reagan V Carter when I was only eight years old. Some years I’m pretty accurate — like 2020, or 2012, or 2000. Some years, not so much, like 2016 or 2008 — and I have to tell you I am still surprised at how poorly John McCain performed at the ballot box in 2008. More on that, later, though.

Before we dive in, let me put out some standard disclaimers. Greenbean is non-partisan. I will have issues with whoever wins, and I am welcome in neither political party which suits me fine. I don’t think they’d let Jesus in, either. They definitely wouldn’t let the prophet Amos in. That I am certain of. So I have no dog in this race other than studying the situation and trying to read where the public is going. That is what I enjoy about it — the margins, the trends in suburban counties, the demographic choices and things like that. We actually learn a lot about ourselves every four years. The elections are mirrors America gazes into every four years.

A second disclaimer is that if you are not interested in this kind of thing — you probably should stop reading now and go do something more productive.

Seriously.

Okay, you’ve been warned. Here we go with three observations. First, all the momentum seems to be moving toward Vice President Harris. The Veep has had a very good couple of weeks and the numbers on early voting indicating people are, at least now, breaking her way. Second, former President Trump has had a very bad end to the campaign. He has not been able to stay on message and has lost some of the fervor he had coming out of the debate with Biden and the failed assassination attempt (Again, let me emphasize, how grateful I am it was a failed attempt! We decide things with a ballot not bullets!) Third, in my investigation of things, Trump has no real ground game working the streets and this will be a problem in swing states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

What of the polls? I don’t trust any of them, not this year. I really don’t trust them in any year. They were wildly flawed in 2016 and then pretty bad again in 2020. What I am concerned about is the pollsters all say they know they were wrong and so they have ‘corrected’ their methodology but the correction is basically to just downgrade by ratios the prevailing evidence. Usually I tend to trust aggregates of polls more than individual polls, but this year even those seem dodgy. The polls say we are in for a tight race. Maybe. It could all break and swing dramatically in one direction or another.

Here is the good news which I see in my crystal ball for Trump: He looks to win Arizona. Probably not by much, but that is the only state where every single indicator is going his way. Things would have turn hard on election day to change that. If you are a republican, then you should know that is the only good news I have for Trump.

I expect Veep to hold the blue wall, including Pennsylvania. The Keystone State is statistically a tie right now but like in baseball, the tie goes to the runner and in this case the runner is whoever won it last and that would be the Dems — statewide in 2022 and 2020. I also think Harris will win North Carolina and Georgia. She will not need either of those if she picks up the blue wall, but she will get them.

Again, let’s talk about polls again. There was a poll over the weekend out of Iowa that was so unexpected that I don’t know what to make of it. It suggested (Seltzer Poll) Harris was ahead by three points in Iowa. That is unbelievable. Iowa is heavily MAGA country. The problem with dismissing this poll is the pollster is actually usually very, very accurate and knows Iowa very well. I feel in my gut Trump will win Iowa, but that poll may signal things are not breaking his way with large volumes of voters and I think that might have an impact in places like Florida, which I think is 50/50 on going blue this year. I don’t think Texas will, but it might be very close. On a local note, I do think Allred will beat Ted Cruz. I am very curious to see if the trend toward the GOP and Trump continues in South Texas the way it has the last two cycles. If he can somehow, maybe just through sheer will and charisma, break through the same way in Georgia and Pennsylvania with the Latino population, he could pull this off.

In short, I think people who make their decision at the moment they stand in the ballot box are breaking for Harris. That is what we saw in 2008 – they broke for Obama rather than McCain. I think this year feels like 2008 not 2020 or 2016. Plus, There are viable paths to 270 for Harris even if she looses Pennsylvania, but if Trump loses Pennsylvania I can see no path for him to get to 270.

A little more on this. I feel like this could be a year when the electoral college map sees some flip flops as the parties continue to transform. What do I mean? New Hampshire could go red all the way, while say, Iowa goes blue. Nevada might go red but Tennessee goes blue. Maybe Michigan does flip, but so does North Carolina. I don’t think this map will look the same as last cycle.

So, some numbers? Harris 291 to Trumps 247 in the electoral college.
Harris wins by 10 million popular votes (I feel this might be the case even if Trump squeaks out an electoral college victory).
I think the GOP takes the Senate back but in a flip flop the Dems regain the House.

Now, if this is not how you want it to go, you should know there is a good chance I am completely wrong. But this is kind of a hobby for me so don’t hate me or unfriend me or anything. Remember, I’ll be on the outside looking in regardless of who wins — which because of Pennsylvania’s rules about when counting can start, will likely not be until Wednesday or Thursday. Maybe Friday.