For starters, my crystal ball is sometimes dim and cloudy, but what does it matter? This post will have a short shelf life anyway. By Wednesday morning we will know more than now. However, for the past 20 years or so I have made election predictions. I have been right the previous four. The last time I was wrong was the Bush/Clinton/Perot election. Who knew a crazy man could get that many votes and swing the election to Clinton? Not me!
Please please please keep in mind that regardless of who wins the presidency I will be disappointed. I am not in love with either candidate, and generally tend to be non-partisan on these issues. I enjoy watching and speculating, like a person who doesn’t bet on horses might watch a horse race for the pure enjoyment of it. That’s me. But before the rest of the nation votes (here in Washington we vote my mail and my ballot was turned in last week) I want to share some of my analysis.
- If President Obama is re-elected, it will be by a very, very slim margin. I am one of those who think that he might lose the popular vote but win the electoral vote.
- Ohio is not the only key state. I suspect Pennsylvania and Wisconsin might go Romney, as well as Colorado and maybe even Oregon. Yes, Oregon. Call me crazy, but I’ve got a hunch. Romney could win the Presidency without Ohio, which would be a very big deal.
- Four years ago I predicted then Senator Obama would win, but I couched it by saying he would be a one term president and I likened him to President Carter. Weirdly, this election cycle reminds me of 1980 a great deal. Romney, though, is no Ronald Reagan and President Obama is much stronger than Jimmy Carter was. However, the Benghazi debacle feels a lot like the Iran hostage situation and gas prices feel something like gas lines. In 1980 it was pretty close in the polls, but when people went to vote, it broke for Reagan. I feel like it could happen again tomorrow. It might break for Romney in a big way.
- Polling traditionally favors Democratic candidates and under reports Republican strength and turnout. The polling currently is a statistical dead heat nationwide, which means, to my mind, that Romney may actually have a 4-5 point lead.
Two months ago I would have said the Romney campaign was dead in the water, but right now, analyzing things the way they stand, I predict that Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States. Keep in mind, I am not saying that is what I want, but that is my analysis. If he does win, I think his coattails might be long enough to give the GOP the Senate and the House. If this is something you are happy about, please accept my congratulations. If it is not, please don’t blame me. Besides, there is just as good a chance that I am wrong although I am trying to be objective.
I personally believe that not much will change regardless of who wins. People will continue to live their lives, go to work, raise their families, and Jesus will still be sovereign.