One of my favorite days is Election Day — our republic in action! I always feel obliged to point out that I am completely nonpartisan. There are issues I care deeply about, but I am too committed to Christ to be a republican or a democrat. However, I do enjoy watching the races, listening to the speeches, and crunching the numbers. I don’t know why, but I just do. It is far more enjoyable to me than a ball game or car race.
What do I expect today? Well, the mood of the country is not good, and when the mood is not good, usually the party not in control wins. The question is, how big will the democrats win? Overall, I think they pick up the House of Representatives with a very comfortable margin, maybe gaining close to thirty seats. I think we can expect some long time republican congressmen to lose and there will be many fresh faces in Washington, D.C. come January.
No one really doubts The House going blue, it is just a matter of margins. But the Senate, that is another thing altogether. Optimistic Republicans think they can keep the Senate, if only by a J. D. Vance tie breaking vote. In this scenario the GOP needs to keep Texas, Maine, Kansas, and Alaska. Usually this is not a hard thing for them, but the country is not happy right now. On the flip side, optimistic Democrats believe they can get six or seven seats and take control of the more distinguished chamber.
Let’s start here in Texas, where I live, because I am pretty familiar with it. Three weeks ago I was leaning toward Paxton barely squeezing a narrow victory over Talarico. I based this on the experience of Texans continually voting for the Red Candidate regardless of character. I mean, we keep sending Ted Cruz back to work, right? But it seems like something shifted in the last two weeks that is based on the mood of the country and anger over wars, inflation, and an overall sense that our government is not focusing on the things that matter. Therefore, I can’t believe I am saying this, but Talarico likely will win by two or three percentage points. As a side item here, his coat tails might bring Gina Hinojosa a victory over Abbott. That is a very long shot, but she has pulled even in the latest polling. People are just not happy.
Before I move on to other races, let me emphasize that if Texas votes Talarico and Hinojosa, it does not mean Texas is now a blue state or that it is democratic. This is a very conservative state. The issue is that Texans are dissatisfied with this batch of Republicans and the only option they have is to tell them, ‘no’ in the hopes the GOP will put its house in order before the 2028 elections. If the GOP holds on to the governor’s mansion and the senate seat here in Texas, it means they can do whatever they want and the people will be okay with that.
The other key senate races are Alaska, Ohio, Michigan, Kansas and Maine. It seems to me these are the ones that will determine who has control. Will Maine keep the always ‘concerned’ Susan Collins or will they fire her? Six years ago people thought she would be ousted, but she actually won comfortably. I feel like things are different this year. The country is not happy.
The shenanigans in Alaska will not make any difference at all. Alaska doesn’t have a Ken Paxton style candidate problem for the GOP, so I think there will not be many defectors. Alaska stays red.
Every other contested state, even the embattled Michigan, will probably go blue. If that happens, it is a big night for the Democrats. While I’m on about Michigan, the only reason that is a close race is because the candidate which came out of the primary has serious problems, and these problems are indicative of the problems within the Democratic Party.
Then there is Florida. My inside information in Florida tells me nothing is normal politically there, and the state is unsettled. I expect some kind of surprise in either the senate or gubernatorial race.
Final Analysis — the GOP will take a beating today. The reason will be mostly self-inflicted because of a very foolish war in Iran and the early work of Doge in the beginning of the administration. Some people will point to the crackdown in immigration as part of the issue, but I don’t think that is what will drive this election. Yes, people care about that, but it is the reckless impression of incompetence, which is the same thing that bit the Biden administration in the backside, that people are reacting to.
The only hope the GOP has, I think, to hold on to anything is if fear of transgender and socialism continue to sway voters in their ultimate analysis. It was the transgender business that did Democrats in two years ago. They need to put that business down and walk away from it because Americans as a whole do not like that at all. Unlike two years ago, though, gas is at around four dollars a gallon and health care premiums are going up, yet again.
The United States is not a happy country right now, and that does not bode well for the governing party.
Bonus prediction (and remember, I am not a prophet just guessing): Whatever happens tonight, by the end of the week the United States will escalate its war in Iran exponentially. I believe the President has only been holding off because of the elections.