First things first, and the thing most people really might appreciate: if you’re just wanting to watch the best of these, here is my top five: Sentimental Value, Hamnet, Sinners, FI, and the animated film Arco. Be aware, though Sinners has bloodsucking banjo playing vampires who speak the same language as the megachurch that planted a satellite campus down the street from your church.

It is evident Oscar is going through some things. I have never seen so much cinematic sadness and sorrow before. Every single movie this year seems determined to make people cry. Sure, there have been plenty of sad movies in the past, but not every, single, one. I talked with Mrs. Greenbean about this, and it must be a reflection of the general sorrow in the world which stems from war, political turmoil, and economic upheaval. The sorrowful ennui has robbed the movies of optimism, joy, and fun. Hollywood has decided the world needs a good cry.

There is only one exception to this, and I will get to that later when I discuss best picture nominees. I don’t want to tip my hand too soon.

But one more thing to say before we get into predictions. For all their sorrow, all of the movies nominated for best picture are good movies, there really is only one true stinker in the batch and that is Marty Supreme. In fact, I am hoping Marty Supreme is the movie that ruins Timothee Chalamet career. At the same time though, none of these are great movies, either. In ten years, no one will reflect on or remember these movies at all. Good, yes, but unremarkable. They all would lose in just about any other year.

Okay, predictions — and I only predict major categories, which I define by categories I care about.

Best picture — One Battle After Another has become the favorite after its dominance at BAFTA, and I will not be mad if it wins, but I think Sentimental Value is more likely to win. Now, I hope, though, I hope, F1 wins. If I chose who the winner was, it would be F1 because it is the only movie that has any kind of feel good, joy, optimism at all. It is also the only complete, start to finish, solid movie. F1 will not win, but I can hope for a pleasant upset, right?

Leading Actor — None of these are great performances, but I think Michael B Jordan wins for Sinners. He was really good in that movie. Wagner Moura was outstanding in The Secret Agent, but that movie was so oddball it hurts his chances. The other three nominees were pantomimes, or caricatures of stereotypes. I still can’t believe Paul Mescal didn’t get a nomination for Hamnet.

Supporting Actor — It should go to Stellan Skarsgard, and I would be okay if Benicio Del Toro won. Again, Sean Penn may win because . . . Hollywood . . . but I found his performance was a hack job and the character made no sense and I think the Battle vote will be split.

Leading Actress — This is the most competitive category all around. I could make a case for every one of these women to win. Rose Byrne’s performance in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You stays with you long after the credits roll, and to be honest, that should have gotten a best picture nomination rather than Marty Supreme or The Secret Agent. However, the winner will be Jessie Buckley. She is phenomenal in Hamnet. Just outstanding.

Supporting Actress — It should be Wunmi Mosaku from Sinners. They split the Sentimental Value vote with two from the same movie.

Animated Feature — Zootopia 2 was a fatal error, the other four are delightful in their own way. KPOP Demon Hunters will likely win, but I hope for Arco. The colors, drawing, and gentle storytelling about deep subjects across a science fiction background are very alluring to me.

Casting — I think this is a new category, one of those made up things to make someone happy. This is the only category I think The Secret Agent should win. It was perfectly cast. Sadly, I bet One Battle After Another Wins because it bravely casted two previous Oscar winners. Right.

Cinematography — Train dreams, and to me this isn’t really close.

Costume Design — Frankenstein.

Directing — This is probably the most coveted. Anderson will likely win for One Battle After Another, but I hope Chloe Zhao wins because even though Hamnet wasn’t the best movie this year, her work directing such familiar material in a minimalist format should be rewarded. She pulled so much out of every single actor.

Documentary — Come See Me In the Good Light — again, sorrow, sadness, tears.

Film Editing — It is a coin flip between F1 and Sentimental Value. Probably Sentimental Value, because in that movie, editing is so important to the plot it is almost a whole character in and of itself.

International Feature Film — Sentimental Value, and this is one of only two locks. If you’re betting, bet this.

Makeup and Hairstyling — Frankenstein.

Music, Original Score — Sinners, and this is the only other lock. In any non-Sinners year, the winner would be Bugonia.

Music, Original Song — Golden from KPOP Demon Hunters.

Production Design — Frankenstein.

Sound — F1, as much as I pull for this film, Sound is probably its only legitimate shot at an Oscar.

Visual Effects — Avatar: Fire and Ash, but we are all so bored of that.

Writing (Adapted) — The winner has to be Hamnet.

Writing (Original) — Blue Moon might sneak in with the hoity toity crowds, but this is really a two movie race between Sentimental Value and Sinners, and I think Sentimental Value takes the Oscar simply because it is far more relatable to most peoples lives than banjo playing bloodsucking vampires starting a fellowship and community focused musical nighttime cult.

Some quick analysis here, and that is the movies were not as sexual this year as the last several — I mean, last year the best picture was practically a porno. Gross. So not as many boobies and bottoms, but the language has intensified. I think it is true that only Train Dreams and the animated films have no horrific curse words. There is also a lot of drug usage and gore.

Okay, if you haven’t already, go watch Hamnet and Sentimental Value to cry, and then watch F1 to feel good again.