These things are always more fun when both sides are contested. That hasn’t happened since 2016. This year the contest is quite boring. Nevertheless, popcorn and Kool-Aid will be enjoyed as I watch the results come in tomorrow night from around the nation.
Tomorrow afternoon, I vote, because Texas is a Super Tuesday state.
These are the things I’m looking at and thinking about. I’ve put it into three categories.
Category One: The GOP. Nikki Haley needs a surprise win somewhere big, say a California or a Texas (doubtful) or Colorado and she needs some states where she can get close to Donald Trump. The odds of this happening are slim, but not as slim as I think others believe. So far, former President Trump is underperforming all the polls on election days. He wins, yes, as one running as an incumbent should, but the margins are not blowouts and the percentage is never as much as the polling suggests it should be. That tells me there might be upsets. Say she takes the three northeastern states – Maine, Vermont, and Massachusetts and then pops off a Colorado or California. Then, things get very, very, very interesting.
If I were betting, though, I’d still bet on Trump to take the vast majority of delegates tomorrow and win the nomination.
Staying in Category One, Haley will not drop out because she is seeing what I am seeing and others are seeing: Former President Trump is not well. He doesn’t look good, and he sounds even worse. I thought that Biden’s age would be an issue (and it is is, more on that later) but NOW both Biden and Trump seem to be suffering lower capacity. If Trump is unable to finish the race, which is a possibility, she wants to be the last one standing. I really do think that is her primary stratagem right now.
Category Two: The Dems. The Media made a huge deal over the weekend with the ‘uncommitted vote’ in Michigan. That was a giant nothing burger. Biden is in the driver’s seat because he can raise money and not worry about any kind of opposition. These are mere formalities. What you will want to watch is turnout. If Democratic turnout is high even when there is no excitement, that might dispel the notion of ‘low enthusiasm’ among voters for Biden.
No challenger is also beneficial to him because of his age. He doesn’t have to keep up a grueling schedule of campaigning or debates. If he did, I’m not certain he’d make it.
Category Three: What I”m Watching and what I’m Thinking: The senate race in California is fascinating. It is a top two race, and the Republican, Steve Garvey, seems to be giving the usually reliable Democratic state a run for their money. I don’t think we will know who wins that one until the next day, but it should be interesting.
I’m also watching the North Carolina Gubernatorial GOP primary. The leading candidate for the GOP has apparently made holocaust denying claims in the past and has some wild views on things. I don’t usually think of North Carolina as that kind of state but I’ll be watching to see how it plays out.
In addition to this, I am thinking 1) Maybe a constitutional amendment limiting the electable age of a president t 75 would be a good idea. 2) If Haley wins nothing tomorrow, then we will have he longest general election ever and I’m not certain that is good. 3) I still feel, despite all evidence, there is a reasonable chance that neither Biden or Trump will be taking the oath of office on 20 January 2025. 4) I really wish there would be a debate between Trump and Haley. I just can’t believe the GOP isn’t making them. It is a disservice to the nation. 5) The State of the Union on Thursday should be . . . interesting but that might be another blog topic.