I am temporarily interrupting my 2011 Greenbean Blog reviews (tomorrow, I promise to get out #2) but I wanted to get my predictions for the Iowa caucuses tonight out there. Now remember, Pastor Greenbean is not endorsing any candidate or party. I do the same thing with the democrats as I do the republicans–I just enjoy watching it, much like someone might watch a football in which neither team is your team. I play for team Jesus, and the last time I checked he never endorses candidates or parties. But, here goes my predictions.
35%–Ron Paul. This reflects a general disqualification with the status quo.
27%–Rick Santorum. His ground game in Iowa is greatly underestimated.
22%–Newt Gingrich. Its hard to believe, but he is still a viable candidate to many GOP’ers.
12%–Mitt Romney. I just don’t think most Republicans, especially very conservative ones, trust Romney and they will have a hard time voting for him.
Okay, there you have it. Let the record reflect I post this at 3:21 PST, well before any results are posted.
We’ll see what happens.
UPDATE: THE MORNING AFTER CAUCUS
It appears I got some things right and some things wrong. The complete results show that I was right about Santorum’s ground game and doing well but I was wrong about the way conservatives would break. I thought in the end more would break for Paul than for Romney. I clearly underestimated his ability to persuade hardened conservatives. I thought more of those folks would break for the evil Newt. I’m just glad I was right about something.